BRACKETOLOGY - 1 DAY TO GO

There are eight hours to go before selections are announced. Let's take a look at how Saturday's games impacted the Big Dance outlook.

Binghamton (America East), Memphis (C-USA), USC (Pac Ten), Missouri (Big Twelve), Temple (Atlantic Ten), Utah (Mountain West), Morgan St (MEAC), Akron (MAC), Louisville (Big East), Alabama St (SWAC), Utah St (WAC), and CS Northridge (Big West) all won their conference tournaments, while an idle Michigan locked up an at-large bid.

San Diego St, Maryland, and Auburn suffered devastating losses, which will cause them to wait nervously today to see which side of the cut-line they will be on. Meanwhile, USC's victory over Arizona St took away an at-large bid from the field. By my calculation, there are 30 at-large selections locked up, leaving just four remaining. This shrinks to three if Mississippi St can score an upset by knocking off Tennessee today. Here's a look at the teams in the running for the final spots, along with the chances I give them of being selected.

Bubble Looking In (Last Teams In) - 4

• Minnesota - 80% (Along with Maryland, they seem to be all but a certainty to lock up one of these final spots, especially being ahead of Penn St in the Big Ten pecking order)

• Maryland - 80% (Along with Minnesota, they seem to be all but a certainty to lock up one of these final spots)

• St. Mary's - 55% (Their selection depends on whether the committee ignores the losses they suffered without Patty Mills late in the season. They should, in which case the only thing St. Mary's can be punished for is losing to a top squad in Gonzaga three times)

• San Diego St - 55% (A week ago, there was talk that the Mountain West could get five teams in the tourney. Now, there are only two locks, and the committee may reward the conference by giving San Diego St its third bid. The strongest thing working against them is that they lost to fellow bubble teams Arizona and St. Mary's)
  

Bubble Looking Out (First Teams Out) - 4

• Creighton - 50% (They haven't played a game in a week. Does that give the committee time to forget about their blowout loss in the MVC semis? Maybe, but it provides other teams chances to make stronger impressions, and San Diego St seems to have surpassed them

• Penn St - 35% (They had very good results in the Big Ten, but ultimately I think the committee will punish them for their weak nonconference schedule, which is a shame)

• Arizona - 20% (At their best, they can play with anyone, but their inconsistency over the course of the season will prove to be their undoing)

• Auburn - 15% (The only way they get in is if the committee decides that the traditionally strong SEC should have three teams in the field. And that argument gets thrown away if Miss St wins today)
  

Teams Preparing for the NIT - 5

• New Mexico - 5%
• UNLV - 2%
• Northwestern - 1%
• Davidson - 1%
• Providence - 1%

Check back at 5:30pm ET for my final prediction for the field of 65, including seedings.