Saturday, March 14, 2009

BRACKETOLOGY - 2 DAYS TO GO

What a wild Friday it was for bubble teams. Only three teams clinched spots in the Big Dance (American by winning the Patriot League tournament, and both Ohio St and Wisconsin by locking up at-large bids). A few other teams moved closer to locking up bids, but will still have to wait to see if the upsets continue over the weekend. South Carolina, Florida, and Virginia Tech can all kiss their tourney hopes goodbye as they failed to get the wins they needed yesterday. Also losing yesterday were Big Ten teams Michigan, Minnesota, and Penn St, who now lose control of their destiny.

Scoring big wins were San Diego St, Maryland, Auburn, Temple, and Utah St (who avoided a scare to all bubble teams and came away with a one-point victory over New Mexico St). Yesterday, I would have said that if SDSU beat BYU and Maryland beat Wake Forest, they'd both be locks. However, with upset victories by Baylor, USC, Temple, and yes - Duquesne, it'll be hard to claim an at-large bid until we know just how many will be available. Right now, I'm claiming there are only six remaining, and that number can only go down.

Here's a look at some teams that could steal an automatic bid, thus reducing the at-large bids available:
  • Atlantic Ten (Duquesne and Temple have already stolen one; If Duquesne wins, Temple may still be in the picture for an at-large, so the A-10 could be charged for two counts of robbery)
  • WAC (Nevada can cause panic in today's final if they beat Utah St, who stand a good chance for an at-large)
  • Big 12 (Baylor has reached the final game, and a win over Missouri would surely reduce the available bids)
  • Mountain West (San Diego St has a chance at an at-large bid, but can clinch a spot with a win over Utah in today's championship game)
  • Pac Ten (USC is one win away from taking an auto bid. If they beat Arizona St, they would become the 5th Pac Ten to lock up a bid, which would be bad news for Arizona)
  • SEC (Auburn and Miss St are both in the semifinals, and if either can win two more games, they blow the bubble apart even further)
  • Conference USA (Tulsa would create panic across the country if they beat Memphis today)
Alright - who's in as of now? Since yesterday's bracketology, American (Patriot League) clinched an automatic bid, and Temple (Atlantic Ten) is the assumed recipient of another. Ohio St and Wisconsin became at-large locks, thus leaving six spots for 15 bubble teams (not including Temple and Utah St, who are expected to win their conferences). Here are my selections prior to today's games. Selections appear in order:

Bubble Teams Looking In (Last Teams In) - 6
  • Michigan
  • San Diego St
  • Minnesota
  • Creighton
  • Maryland
  • USC
Bubble Teams Looking Out (First Teams Out) - 5
  • Arizona
  • Penn St
  • New Mexico
  • Auburn
  • St. Mary's
Teams Still Hanging On To Hope - 4
  • UNLV
  • Northwestern
  • Davidson
  • Providence
TODAY'S GAMES WITH BUBBLE RAMIFICATIONS
  1. Tulsa vs Memphis (Potential Theft by Tulsa)
  2. Auburn vs Tennessee (Elimination game for Auburn)
  3. Maryland vs Duke (Maryland can clinch bid)
  4. USC vs Arizona St (Potential Theft by USC)
  5. Baylor vs Missouri (Potential Theft by Baylor)
  6. Duquesne vs Temple (Potential Theft by Duquesne)
  7. San Diego St vs Utah (Potential Theft by San Diego St)
  8. Nevada vs Utah St (Potential Theft by Nevada)

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